Kalmar FF 0-1 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees IF Brommapojkarna travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 July 2024, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guldfågeln Arena, Kalmar FF have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kalmar FF 1.30 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kalmar FF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kalmar FF, 1 for IF Brommapojkarna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 3–2 with Kalmar FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
IF Brommapojkarna in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 54% versus IF Brommapojkarna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 58% | IF Brommapojkarna 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.43 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.868 / defence 1.370 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.045 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.325. Data: 43 Kalmar FF games / 43 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 29% | Draw 22% | IF Brommapojkarna 49%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.04. IF Brommapojkarna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Brommapojkarna are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 60% | IF Brommapojkarna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jul 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 29% | Draw 22% | IF Brommapojkarna 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Kalmar FF 1.43 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.868 / def 1.370 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.045 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.90
IF Brommapojkarna xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 14 July 2024 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Kalmar FF 0 - 1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 29% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (2 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 0 | IF Brommapojkarna 1W.
What form are Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.87x the league average against IF Brommapojkarna's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
29%
3.43
22%
4.48
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
3.33
1.90
IF Brommapojkarna xG
3.43
29%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
15%
6.67
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
4%
22.89
12%
8.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.90 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kalmar FF come into this having played 43 games, going 17W 7D 19L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IF Brommapojkarna sit at 1.21 PPG from 43 outings (14W 10D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalmar FF on 1.35 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kalmar FF's home form reads 9W 4D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Brommapojkarna have taken 1.33 points per game from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.49 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 17W 7D 19L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.48 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kalmar FF's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
0
Draws
3
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 5 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, IF Brommapojkarna have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 52%, IF Brommapojkarna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kalmar FF) and 57% (IF Brommapojkarna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play IF Brommapojkarna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 57% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 57% of IF Brommapojkarna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Brommapojkarna edge out Kalmar FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Kalmar FF 0-1 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.43 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.90 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kalmar FF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. IF Brommapojkarna landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.87 / defence 1.37 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 29% | Draw 22% | IF Brommapojkarna 49%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 58%, IF Brommapojkarna 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.35 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.