Kalmar FF 0-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 25 July 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's home record at Guldfågeln Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guldfågeln Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Djurgardens IF are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Kalmar FF 0W, Djurgardens IF 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2020, ended 0–3 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 51% versus Djurgardens IF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 46% | Djurgardens IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.15 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.896 / defence 1.033 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.986 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.160. Data: 41 Kalmar FF games / 41 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 32% | Djurgardens IF 35%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Djurgardens IF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 20% | Djurgardens IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 32% | Djurgardens IF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Kalmar FF 1.15 / Djurgardens IF 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.896 / def 1.033 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.986 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Djurgardens IF xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Kalmar FF 0 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 33% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (1 meetings): Kalmar FF 0W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 1W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.90x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.99x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
33%
3.02
32%
3.10
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.33
1.18
Djurgardens IF xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.18 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Kalmar FF have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 10W 15D 16L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 21W 9D 11L from 41 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Djurgardens IF are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalmar FF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kalmar FF have posted 0.85 PPG from 20 outings (3W 8D 9L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 9W 4D 7L from 20 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.68 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 10W 15D 16L in their last 41 games (1.10 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 21W 9D 11L in their last 41 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 0.85 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-3 on 22 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kalmar FF
1
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 45%, Djurgardens IF 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Kalmar FF) and 50% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 35%; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 45% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 50% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out Kalmar FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Kalmar FF 0-1 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.15 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.18 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kalmar FF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.90 / defence 1.03 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.99 / defence 0.85, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 32% | Djurgardens IF 35%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 46%, Djurgardens IF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.