Jonkopings Sodra 1-3 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jonkopings Sodra and Kalmar FF meet at Stadsparksvallen in Allsvenskan, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 9 December 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kalmar FF (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Kalmar FF's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.16 xG and Kalmar FF 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Kalmar FF attack 0.856 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.364. Data: 0 Jonkopings Sodra games / 30 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 32% | Draw 28% | Kalmar FF 40%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Kalmar FF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kalmar FF at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 32% | Draw 28% | Kalmar FF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.16 / Kalmar FF 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Kalmar FF attack 0.856 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Kalmar FF xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 9 December 2020 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Kalmar FF?
Jonkopings Sodra 1 - 3 Kalmar FF.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Kalmar FF part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Kalmar FF is a Relegation Round fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 32% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Kalmar FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Kalmar FF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Kalmar FF away split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra's attack at 0.85x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.86x) against Jonkopings Sodra's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
32%
3.17
28%
3.54
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.50
1.34
Kalmar FF xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
8%
12.15
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.34 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Pre-Season
Kalmar FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 December 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Jonkopings Sodra
0
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Kalmar FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2020, when Kalmar FF 1-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Kalmar FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jonkopings Sodra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Jonkopings Sodra 1-3 at Stadsparksvallen, Relegation Round, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.16 xG and Kalmar FF 1.34 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kalmar FF outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Kalmar FF attack 0.86 / defence 1.19, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 32% | Draw 28% | Kalmar FF 40%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.