IFK Varnamo 0-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Varnamo at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Mjallby AIF travel to Borås Arena to take on IFK Varnamo. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 April 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 3W 4D 3L at Borås Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Borås Arena this season.
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mjallby AIF's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, IFK Varnamo have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for IFK Varnamo, 0 for Mjallby AIF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with IFK Varnamo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 52% versus Mjallby AIF 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 47% | Mjallby AIF 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.34 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.971 / defence 1.067 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.984 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.171. Data: 31 IFK Varnamo games / 31 Mjallby AIF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 33%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Mjallby AIF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 80% | Mjallby AIF 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.34 / Mjallby AIF 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.971 / def 1.067 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.984 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Mjallby AIF xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 12:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
IFK Varnamo 0 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 39% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF?
Record (2 meetings): IFK Varnamo 1W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 0W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.97x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.54
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.57
1.23
Mjallby AIF xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.23 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 15D 18L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.35 PPG from 60 outings (20W 21D 19L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.60 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 16W 8D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (10W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.12 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 27W 15D 18L in their last 60 games (1.60 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 20W 21D 19L in their last 60 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Mjallby AIF away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.87 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.33 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjallby AIF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2025, when Mjallby AIF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
2
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2025, when IFK Varnamo 0-5 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 53%, Mjallby AIF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for IFK Varnamo and 30% for Mjallby AIF.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 43%; Mjallby AIF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 33% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 30% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IFK Varnamo 0-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.34 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.23 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Varnamo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.97 / defence 1.07 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 33%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 47%, Mjallby AIF 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.60 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.