IFK Varnamo 1-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Djurgardens IF travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo in Allsvenskan (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
IFK Varnamo — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, IFK Varnamo have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Djurgardens IF have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Djurgardens IF have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Djurgardens IF are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for IFK Varnamo, 3 for Djurgardens IF and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Jul 2024, ended IFK Varnamo 0–1 Djurgardens IF — a Djurgardens IF win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 44% versus Djurgardens IF 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 46% | Djurgardens IF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.22 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.826 / defence 1.235 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.081 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.283. IFK Varnamo's defence rating of 1.235 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Djurgardens IF's projected output up. Data: built from IFK Varnamo's last 54 games and Djurgardens IF's last 54.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 27% | Draw 24% | Djurgardens IF 49%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 3.67 | Draw 4.20 | Djurgardens IF 2.04. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (IFK Varnamo's last 10 home games and Djurgardens IF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: IFK Varnamo 50% (last 10 home games) | Djurgardens IF 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 25 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 27% | Draw 24% | Djurgardens IF 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG IFK Varnamo 1.22 / Djurgardens IF 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.826 / def 1.235 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.081 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Djurgardens IF xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF FAQs
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 25) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 27% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IFK Varnamo's last 54 games and Djurgardens IF's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
27%
3.67
24%
4.20
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.93
1.71
Djurgardens IF xG
3.67
27%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
18%
5.54
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
5%
20.35
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.71 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 54 games, going 20W 9D 25L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.76 PPG from 54 outings (29W 8D 17L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 8W 4D 15L across their last 27 home games, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.56 points per game from their last 27 away games (13W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.46 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IFK Varnamo (Home) vs Djurgardens IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF Form FAQs
What form are IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 20W 9D 25L in their last 54 games (1.28 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 29W 8D 17L in their last 54 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.04 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.56 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 25 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Jul 2022, when Djurgardens IF won Djurgardens IF 5-0 IFK Varnamo.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
2
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2025: Djurgardens IF 6-2 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 41%, Djurgardens IF 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (IFK Varnamo) and 59% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 41% of games; Djurgardens IF in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 52% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 59% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 63% of Djurgardens IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF finished level at 1-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.22 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.71 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.83 / defence 1.24 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 27% | Draw 24% | Djurgardens IF 49%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 46%, Djurgardens IF 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.