IFK Norrkoping 1-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IF Elfsborg make the trip to Östgötaporten to face IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Wednesday 1 July 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
IFK Norrkoping (all games): 4W 0D 0L across 4 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W. They are averaging 3.25 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. IFK Norrkoping have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.50 PPG across 4 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 3D 0L. Last five: W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. IF Elfsborg have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in IFK Norrkoping's favour (3.00 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
IFK Norrkoping half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Norrkoping 75% and IF Elfsborg 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 100% | IF Elfsborg 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.15 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.248 / defence 0.960 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.639 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.409. Data: 4 IFK Norrkoping games / 4 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 39% | Draw 37% | IF Elfsborg 24%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 2.56 | Draw 2.70 | IF Elfsborg 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Norrkoping at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: IFK Norrkoping 75% | IF Elfsborg 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Östgötaporten • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 39% | Draw 37% | IF Elfsborg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.15 / IF Elfsborg 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.248 / def 0.960 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.639 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
0.86
IF Elfsborg xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 1 July 2020 at Östgötaporten.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg?
IFK Norrkoping 1 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Östgötaporten.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 39% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 24% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 4W-0D-0L in 4 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 1W-3D-0L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IFK Norrkoping's attack at 1.25x the league average against IF Elfsborg's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.64x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
39%
2.56
37%
2.72
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.02
0.86
IF Elfsborg xG
2.56
39%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
8%
13.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 0.86 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, IFK Norrkoping have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 4W 0D 0L record — W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, IFK Norrkoping are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IF Elfsborg.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 3.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.00 scored and 0.75 conceded. IFK Norrkoping's scoring rate against IF Elfsborg's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Early Season
IF Elfsborg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 games (3.00 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 1W 3D 0L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have IFK Norrkoping or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Norrkoping have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IFK Norrkoping
3
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 2-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 75%, IF Elfsborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for IFK Norrkoping and 25% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of IFK Norrkoping's games and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of IFK Norrkoping's matches and 25% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping and IF Elfsborg finished level at 1-1 at Östgötaporten, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.15 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.86 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.25 / defence 0.96 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.64 / defence 0.89, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 39% | Draw 37% | IF Elfsborg 24%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 100%, IF Elfsborg 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Norrkoping arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IFK Norrkoping managed 1 against a 3.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.