IFK Goteborg 1-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Goteborg at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Varbergs BoIS FC travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on IFK Goteborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 May 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Goteborg — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Varbergs BoIS FC away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, IFK Goteborg have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for IFK Goteborg, 2 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IFK Goteborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 52% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 50% | Varbergs BoIS FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.31 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 1.019 / defence 1.123 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.958 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.048. Data: 37 IFK Goteborg games / 37 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 41% | Draw 27% | Varbergs BoIS FC 32%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Varbergs BoIS FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Goteborg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 30% | Varbergs BoIS FC 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 41% | Draw 27% | Varbergs BoIS FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.31 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 1.019 / def 1.123 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.958 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 41% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (4 meetings): IFK Goteborg 2W | Draws 0 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 1.02x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.67
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.44
1.13
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
9%
11.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.13 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Goteborg come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 21D 21L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 1.23 PPG from 60 outings (19W 17D 24L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.25 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Goteborg's home form reads 9W 8D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Varbergs BoIS FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (7W 9D 14L).
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 18W 21D 21L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 19W 17D 24L in their last 60 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.17 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and Varbergs BoIS FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2022, when IFK Goteborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
3
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 4, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 47%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (IFK Goteborg) and 57% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg have failed to score in 27% of games; Varbergs BoIS FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 57% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 57% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg and Varbergs BoIS FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg and Varbergs BoIS FC finished level at 1-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.31 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.02 / defence 1.12 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 41% | Draw 27% | Varbergs BoIS FC 32%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 50%, Varbergs BoIS FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.25 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.