IFK Goteborg 0-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orebro SK at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 26 as IFK Goteborg welcome Orebro SK to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 November 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Goteborg — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Orebro SK's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of IFK Goteborg's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for IFK Goteborg, 0 for Orebro SK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
IFK Goteborg trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Orebro SK trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Goteborg 64% and Orebro SK 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 56% | Orebro SK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.03 xG and Orebro SK 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.743 / defence 1.357 | Orebro SK attack 0.636 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.367. IFK Goteborg's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing IFK Goteborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 IFK Goteborg games / 25 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 28% | Draw 35% | Orebro SK 36%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Orebro SK 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orebro SK as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 60% | Orebro SK 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 28% | Draw 35% | Orebro SK 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.03 / Orebro SK 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.743 / def 1.357 | Orebro SK attack 0.636 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Orebro SK xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 1 November 2020 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 28% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Orebro SK?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Goteborg 0W | Draws 1 | Orebro SK 0W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Orebro SK in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
28%
3.51
35%
2.82
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.21
1.18
Orebro SK xG
3.51
28%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
9%
11.45
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.18 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IFK Goteborg come into this having played 25 games, going 4W 12D 9L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 0.96 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IFK Goteborg's home form reads 2W 4D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Orebro SK's season.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.28 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Goteborg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Orebro SK in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 4W 12D 9L in their last 25 games (0.96 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 9W 6D 10L in their last 25 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Orebro SK away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 0.83 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 1, Orebro SK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2021, when IFK Goteborg 2-0 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 58%, Orebro SK 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for IFK Goteborg and 58% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of IFK Goteborg's games and 58% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of IFK Goteborg's matches and 58% of Orebro SK's.
Do IFK Goteborg and Orebro SK tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orebro SK edge out IFK Goteborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat IFK Goteborg 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.03 xG and Orebro SK 1.18 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.74 / defence 1.36 against Orebro SK attack 0.64 / defence 1.20, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 28% | Draw 35% | Orebro SK 36%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 56%, Orebro SK 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Orebro SK's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 0.96 PPG, Orebro SK 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.