IFK Goteborg 2-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Goteborg at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to IFK Goteborg versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Monday 4 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Goteborg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward IFK Goteborg. A 0.70 PPG lead over Degerfors IF (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IFK Goteborg lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with IFK Goteborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 49% versus Degerfors IF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 46% | Degerfors IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.64 xG and Degerfors IF 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.926 / defence 0.979 | Degerfors IF attack 0.973 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.086. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing IFK Goteborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 IFK Goteborg games / 41 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 52% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 24%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Degerfors IF 4.17. IFK Goteborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 40% | Degerfors IF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 4 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 52% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.64 / Degerfors IF 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.926 / def 0.979 | Degerfors IF attack 0.973 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Degerfors IF xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 4 July 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
IFK Goteborg 2 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 52% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF?
Record (2 meetings): IFK Goteborg 1W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 1W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Degerfors IF's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.97x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
52%
1.94
25%
4.07
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.67
1.03
Degerfors IF xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
5%
21.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.03 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 16W 10D 15L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF's form line: 12W 5D 24L from 41 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IFK Goteborg are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Degerfors IF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (8W 5D 7L).
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 4W 3D 13L from 20 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Goteborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.05 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 games (1.41 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 12W 5D 24L in their last 41 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Degerfors IF away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.45 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.75 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
IFK Goteborg go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 6-0 on 4 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
IFK Goteborg
0
Draws
2
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 7, Degerfors IF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when IFK Goteborg 2-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 50%, Degerfors IF 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (IFK Goteborg) and 50% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 45% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 50% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Degerfors IF 2-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.64 xG and Degerfors IF 1.03 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Degerfors IF attack 0.97 / defence 1.20, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 52% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 24%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 46%, Degerfors IF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Goteborg arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.