IF Elfsborg 1-3 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sirius at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Sirius meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
IF Elfsborg (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 4W 3D 3L at Borås Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sirius have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sirius arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — IF Elfsborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sirius in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, IF Elfsborg are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 3, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 0–4 with Sirius winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both IF Elfsborg and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Sirius — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Elfsborg 52% and Sirius 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 55% | Sirius 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.27 xG and Sirius 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 0.889 / defence 0.831 | Sirius attack 1.363 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.391. Sirius have an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 IF Elfsborg games / 42 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 30% | Draw 27% | Sirius 43%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Sirius 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
IF Elfsborg dominate the H2H record, yet Sirius are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 70% | Sirius 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 30% | Draw 27% | Sirius 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.27 / Sirius 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 0.889 / def 0.831 | Sirius attack 1.363 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Sirius (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Sirius xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Sirius kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Sirius kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 19 July 2026 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 3 Sirius.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 30% chance of winning, Sirius a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
Record (9 meetings): IF Elfsborg 6W | Draws 0 | Sirius 3W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Sirius in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Sirius (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IF Elfsborg's attack rating (0.89) and Sirius's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.36x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
30%
3.39
27%
3.68
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.84
1.57
Sirius xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
6%
16.36
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.57 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 16W 9D 17L from 42 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 13L across 42 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.69 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 10W 5D 6L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 9W 5D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 2.05 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 74%.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Sirius in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 16W 9D 17L in their last 42 games (1.36 PPG), while Sirius have gone 21W 8D 13L in their last 42 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Sirius away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.67 PPG; Sirius away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sirius have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-0 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
IF Elfsborg
0
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 6, Sirius have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for IF Elfsborg, 86% for Sirius — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for IF Elfsborg and 81% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of IF Elfsborg's games and 86% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 81% of Sirius's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Sirius tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Sirius in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat IF Elfsborg 1-3 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.27 xG and Sirius 1.57 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sirius outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 0.89 / defence 0.83 against Sirius attack 1.36 / defence 0.84, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 30% | Draw 27% | Sirius 43%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 55%, Sirius 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.36 PPG, Sirius 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.