IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 10 as IF Brommapojkarna welcome Sirius to Grimsta IP. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 May 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sirius away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.40 xG and Sirius 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.839 / defence 0.928 | Sirius attack 0.821 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.166. Data: 9 IF Brommapojkarna games / 39 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 48% | Draw 29% | Sirius 23%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Sirius 4.35. IF Brommapojkarna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 48% | Draw 29% | Sirius 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.40 / Sirius 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.839 / def 0.928 | Sirius attack 0.821 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Sirius xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius?
IF Brommapojkarna 1 - 2 Sirius.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 48% chance of winning, Sirius a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius in?
Sirius (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Sirius away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IF Brommapojkarna's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
48%
2.08
29%
3.46
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.29
0.89
Sirius xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
6%
17.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 0.89 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
Sirius
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
5
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius?
From 7 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, Sirius have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Sirius defy the odds to beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.40 xG and Sirius 0.89 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sirius outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against Sirius attack 0.82 / defence 1.04, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 48% | Draw 29% | Sirius 23%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sirius win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.