IF Brommapojkarna 0-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AIK Stockholm (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IF Brommapojkarna face AIK Stockholm.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Grimsta IP plays host to IF Brommapojkarna versus AIK Stockholm in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
IF Brommapojkarna's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IF Brommapojkarna at Grimsta IP this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AIK Stockholm have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
AIK Stockholm away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
AIK Stockholm arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for IF Brommapojkarna, 2 for AIK Stockholm and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
IF Brommapojkarna half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
AIK Stockholm half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 60% versus AIK Stockholm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 63% | AIK Stockholm 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.00 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.869 / defence 1.156 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.999 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.354. Data: 39 IF Brommapojkarna games / 41 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 24% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 50%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | AIK Stockholm 2.00. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | AIK Stockholm 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 24% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.00 / AIK Stockholm 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.869 / def 1.156 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.999 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.56
AIK Stockholm xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm?
IF Brommapojkarna 0 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 24% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm?
Record (4 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 0W | Draws 2 | AIK Stockholm 2W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Brommapojkarna's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (1.00x) against IF Brommapojkarna's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 39/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
24%
4.15
26%
3.89
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.56
1.56
AIK Stockholm xG
4.15
24%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
5%
19.83
18%
5.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.56 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, IF Brommapojkarna have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 19W 14D 27L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 26W 12D 22L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for IF Brommapojkarna against 1.50 for AIK Stockholm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 1.17 PPG from 30 outings (9W 8D 13L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 10W 5D 15L from 30 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.33 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 26W 12D 22L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or AIK Stockholm away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.17 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.17 PPG.
Have IF Brommapojkarna or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Brommapojkarna have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
IF Brommapojkarna
3
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm?
From 7 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 0, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 2-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 57%, AIK Stockholm 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (IF Brommapojkarna) and 50% (AIK Stockholm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 33% of games; AIK Stockholm in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 53% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 50% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out IF Brommapojkarna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat IF Brommapojkarna 0-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.00 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.56 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IF Brommapojkarna fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.87 / defence 1.16 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.00 / defence 0.84, drawn from 39/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 24% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 50%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 63%, AIK Stockholm 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.18 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.