Helsingborg 1-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kalmar FF at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Helsingborg host Kalmar FF at Olympia in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 July 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Helsingborg have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Olympia this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Kalmar FF — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kalmar FF — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Helsingborg have won 0, Kalmar FF 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Helsingborg in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 49% versus Kalmar FF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 54% | Kalmar FF 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 0.93 xG and Kalmar FF 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.656 / defence 1.252 | Kalmar FF attack 1.057 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.136. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.656 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Helsingborg games / 41 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 23% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 50%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Kalmar FF 2.00. Kalmar FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kalmar FF at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Helsingborg 40% | Kalmar FF 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jul 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 23% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Helsingborg 0.93 / Kalmar FF 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.656 / def 1.252 | Kalmar FF attack 1.057 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Kalmar FF xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 2 July 2022 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF?
Helsingborg 1 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF part of?
Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 23% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Helsingborg and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Kalmar FF?
Record (2 meetings): Helsingborg 0W | Draws 1 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and Kalmar FF in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.66x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
23%
4.27
26%
3.84
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.44
1.50
Kalmar FF xG
4.27
23%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
5%
19.18
20%
5.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 13.2 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.50 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helsingborg come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 9D 18L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kalmar FF sit at 1.61 PPG from 41 outings (19W 9D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helsingborg on 1.24 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Helsingborg's home form reads 6W 4D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Kalmar FF have taken 1.55 points per game from 20 outings (9W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Helsingborg are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.34 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 14W 9D 18L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 19W 9D 13L in their last 41 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Kalmar FF away?
Kalmar FF's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.10 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Kalmar FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jun 2020, when Kalmar FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helsingborg's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Helsingborg
2
Draws
4
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Kalmar FF?
From 6 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 0, Kalmar FF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2025, when Kalmar FF 2-0 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 40%, Kalmar FF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Helsingborg) and 55% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 60% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Helsingborg's recent games and 55% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helsingborg and Kalmar FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympia, Regular Season - 12, as Helsingborg and Kalmar FF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 0.93 xG and Kalmar FF 1.50 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.66 / defence 1.25 against Kalmar FF attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 12/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 23% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 50%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 54%, Kalmar FF 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.24 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.