Helsingborg 0-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Helsingborg host IFK Goteborg at Olympia in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helsingborg — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Helsingborg have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Olympia, Helsingborg have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Goteborg stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IFK Goteborg — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Helsingborg, 1 for IFK Goteborg and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2020, ended 0–1 with IFK Goteborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Helsingborg in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 56% versus IFK Goteborg 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 50% | IFK Goteborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.27 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.865 / defence 1.150 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.037 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.401. Data: 1 Helsingborg games / 31 IFK Goteborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 29% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 47%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | IFK Goteborg 2.13. IFK Goteborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Goteborg at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Helsingborg 40% | IFK Goteborg 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 29% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Helsingborg 1.27 / IFK Goteborg 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.865 / def 1.150 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.037 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.67
IFK Goteborg xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Helsingborg 0 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 29% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg?
Record (2 meetings): Helsingborg 0W | Draws 1 | IFK Goteborg 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Helsingborg's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against IFK Goteborg's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
29%
3.44
24%
4.16
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.94
1.67
IFK Goteborg xG
3.44
29%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
5%
18.29
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.67 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helsingborg come into this having played 32 games, going 6W 11D 15L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Helsingborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, IFK Goteborg sit at 1.47 PPG from 32 outings (13W 8D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
IFK Goteborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Helsingborg's home form reads 3W 6D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Goteborg have taken 1.44 points per game from 16 outings (6W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Goteborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Helsingborg are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.50 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: IFK Goteborg in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Early Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 6W 11D 15L in their last 32 games (0.91 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 13W 8D 11L in their last 32 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or IFK Goteborg away?
IFK Goteborg's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 0.94 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 September 2022, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Helsingborg's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Helsingborg
1
Draws
2
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 1, IFK Goteborg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2022, when IFK Goteborg 1-3 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 38%, IFK Goteborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Helsingborg) and 56% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg in 31%; Helsingborg have failed to score in 56% of games; IFK Goteborg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 50% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Helsingborg's recent games and 56% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Goteborg edge out Helsingborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Helsingborg 0-1 at Olympia, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.27 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.67 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Helsingborg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 29% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 47%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 50%, IFK Goteborg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Goteborg arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.