Helsingborg 0-0 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 35%, yet in-form BK Hacken provide a compelling counter-argument — this Helsingborg vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
BK Hacken make the trip to Olympia to face Helsingborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Monday 19 October 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Helsingborg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg at Olympia this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
BK Hacken have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. BK Hacken are 0.90 PPG clear of Helsingborg in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Helsingborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, BK Hacken in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Helsingborg, 1 for BK Hacken and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2020, ended 0–1 with BK Hacken winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Helsingborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BK Hacken goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 64% versus BK Hacken 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 50% | BK Hacken 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.17 xG and BK Hacken 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.857 / defence 1.053 | BK Hacken attack 0.772 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.401. Data: 23 Helsingborg games / 22 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 35% | Draw 33% | BK Hacken 33%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | BK Hacken 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helsingborg are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form BK Hacken (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Helsingborg 60% | BK Hacken 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Monday 19 Oct 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 35% | Draw 33% | BK Hacken 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Helsingborg 1.17 / BK Hacken 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.857 / def 1.053 | BK Hacken attack 0.772 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.14
BK Hacken xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs BK Hacken kick off?
Helsingborg vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 19 October 2020 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs BK Hacken?
Helsingborg 0 - 0 BK Hacken.
Where is Helsingborg vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs BK Hacken part of?
Helsingborg vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 35% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Helsingborg and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and BK Hacken?
Record (1 meetings): Helsingborg 0W | Draws 0 | BK Hacken 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and BK Hacken in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. BK Hacken (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Helsingborg's attack rating (0.86) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — BK Hacken's attack (0.77x) against Helsingborg's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
35%
2.90
33%
3.07
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.31
1.14
BK Hacken xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.14 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Helsingborg's recent record stands at 4W 9D 9L from 22 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 4L across 22 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours BK Hacken by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Helsingborg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Helsingborg have managed 3W 4D 3L from 10 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 3W 4D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helsingborg are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.64 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helsingborg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: BK Hacken in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 4W 9D 9L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 10W 8D 4L in their last 22 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or BK Hacken away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.30 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 August 2022, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BK Hacken won 5-0 on 8 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against BK Hacken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Helsingborg
2
Draws
2
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and BK Hacken?
From 4 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 0, BK Hacken have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2022, when BK Hacken 5-0 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 60%, BK Hacken 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Helsingborg) and 60% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Helsingborg's games and 60% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helsingborg vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Helsingborg's recent games and 60% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Helsingborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympia, Regular Season - 24, as Helsingborg and BK Hacken drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.17 xG and BK Hacken 1.14 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Helsingborg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. BK Hacken landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.86 / defence 1.05 against BK Hacken attack 0.77 / defence 1.19, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 35% | Draw 33% | BK Hacken 33%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 50%, BK Hacken 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
BK Hacken's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.