Hammarby FF 1-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 19 as Hammarby FF welcome IF Elfsborg to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 August 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hammarby FF have posted 7W 2D 1L at Tele2 Arena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. IF Elfsborg's 2.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Hammarby FF's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Hammarby FF have won 1, IF Elfsborg 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 48% versus IF Elfsborg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 56% | IF Elfsborg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.39 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.198 / defence 0.962 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.505 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.221. IF Elfsborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.505 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Hammarby FF games / 48 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 30% | Draw 23% | IF Elfsborg 46%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | IF Elfsborg 2.17. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 70% | IF Elfsborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 30% | Draw 23% | IF Elfsborg 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Hammarby FF 1.39 / IF Elfsborg 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.198 / def 0.962 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.505 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.77
IF Elfsborg xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Hammarby FF 1 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 30% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (4 meetings): Hammarby FF 1W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 2W.
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
30%
3.30
23%
4.30
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.16
1.77
IF Elfsborg xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
5%
19.36
12%
8.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.77 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 23W 12D 13L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 26W 13D 9L from 48 games, 1.90 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.69 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 2.22 PPG from 23 outings (15W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 12W 5D 6L from 23 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 2.00 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 23W 12D 13L in their last 48 games (1.69 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 26W 13D 9L in their last 48 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.22 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 6, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 56%, IF Elfsborg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Hammarby FF and 56% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 48% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Hammarby FF's matches and 56% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hammarby FF defy the odds to beat IF Elfsborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IF Elfsborg 1-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.39 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.77 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IF Elfsborg landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.20 / defence 0.96 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.50 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 30% | Draw 23% | IF Elfsborg 46%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Hammarby FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 56%, IF Elfsborg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.69 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.