Hammarby FF 5-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hammarby FF host Degerfors IF at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 July 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Tele2 Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 4W 2D 3L from 9 Allsvenskan matches — 1.56 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF away from home this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.56 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Hammarby FF) versus 1.56 (Degerfors IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 78% versus Degerfors IF 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 56% | Degerfors IF 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.56 xG and Degerfors IF 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.049 / defence 1.088 | Degerfors IF attack 0.815 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.054. Data: 39 Hammarby FF games / 9 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 50% | Draw 30% | Degerfors IF 20%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Degerfors IF 5.00. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 80% | Degerfors IF 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jul 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 50% | Draw 30% | Degerfors IF 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Hammarby FF 1.56 / Degerfors IF 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.049 / def 1.088 | Degerfors IF attack 0.815 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Degerfors IF xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 July 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Hammarby FF 5 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 50% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.89 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hammarby FF's attack at 1.05x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
50%
2.01
30%
3.36
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.50
0.93
Degerfors IF xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
4%
23.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.93 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 3W 3D 3L from 9 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 3L across 9 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.33 PPG, Degerfors IF on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Degerfors IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.33 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.80 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2021, when Hammarby FF won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 7, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 4-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 80%, Degerfors IF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Hammarby FF and 20% for Degerfors IF.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hammarby FF's games and 40% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 20% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Degerfors IF 5-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.56 xG and Degerfors IF 0.93 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.05 / defence 1.09 against Degerfors IF attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 50% | Draw 30% | Degerfors IF 20%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 56%, Degerfors IF 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.33 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.