Hammarby FF 4-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hammarby FF face Degerfors IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hammarby FF host Degerfors IF at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 July 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Odds Analysis
Hammarby FF are the shorter-priced side — market prices: Hammarby FF 1.26 (74%) | Draw 5.45 (17%) | Degerfors IF 10.15 (9%).
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at 3Arena this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at 3Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Hammarby FF hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 0 for Degerfors IF, with 2 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hammarby FF and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 52% versus Degerfors IF 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 55% | Degerfors IF 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.14 xG and Degerfors IF 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.351 / defence 0.781 | Degerfors IF attack 0.847 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.391. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Hammarby FF games / 42 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 64% | Draw 21% | Degerfors IF 14%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Degerfors IF 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The model sees Hammarby FF as less likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 64% versus the market's fair-implied 74% (priced at 1.26). Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting. The market (1.51, fair-implied 62%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 50% | Degerfors IF 80% BTTS from recent games. Market pricing (1.89, fair-implied 49%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 64% | Draw 21% | Degerfors IF 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG Hammarby FF 2.14 / Degerfors IF 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.351 / def 0.781 | Degerfors IF attack 0.847 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (64%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Hammarby FF 1.26 (impl 74%) | Draw 5.45 (impl 17%) | Degerfors IF 10.15 (impl 9%) • Market favourite: Hammarby FF at 1.26 • Poisson vs market: same direction (Hammarby FF) but Poisson rates them at 64% vs market implied 74% — model sees a 10pp premium worth monitoring • Hammarby FF Win: Poisson 64% vs market fair-implied 74% (9pp gap) — the model sees Hammarby FF as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.51 (impl 66%) / Under 2.5 2.43 (impl 41%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 59% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.89 (impl 53%) / No 1.80 (impl 55%) | Poisson BTTS probability 54%
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Degerfors IF xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Hammarby FF 4 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 64% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF?
Record (8 meetings): Hammarby FF 6W | Draws 2 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
1X2 market: Hammarby FF 1.26 (impl 74%) | Draw 5.45 (impl 17%) | Degerfors IF 10.15 (impl 9%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hammarby FF's attack at 1.35x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 2.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
64%
1.55
21%
4.65
14%
7.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.07
0.92
Degerfors IF xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.65
21%
Draw
7.10
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
12%
8.53
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
2%
60.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.92 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 25W 7D 10L from 42 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 22L across 42 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 15W 2D 3L from 20 games — 2.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.95 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 8W 3D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.95 PPG overall record — Degerfors IF travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.07 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 25W 7D 10L in their last 42 games (1.95 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 10W 10D 22L in their last 42 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.35 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2021, when Hammarby FF won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 7, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 4-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 50%, Degerfors IF 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Hammarby FF and 70% for Degerfors IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hammarby FF's games and 65% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Hammarby FF's matches and 70% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Degerfors IF 4-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.14 xG and Degerfors IF 0.92 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Degerfors IF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.35 / defence 0.78 against Degerfors IF attack 0.85 / defence 0.93, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 64% | Draw 21% | Degerfors IF 14%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 55%, Degerfors IF 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.