Halmstad 1-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Halmstad at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Halmstad and Mjallby AIF meet at Örjans Vall in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 13 May 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.20 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.876 / defence 1.026 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.803 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.093. Data: 5 Halmstad games / 35 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 43% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 27%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Mjallby AIF 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Halmstad as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Halmstad if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Thursday 13 May 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 43% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Halmstad 1.20 / Mjallby AIF 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.876 / def 1.026 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.803 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Halmstad (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Mjallby AIF xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 13 May 2021 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Halmstad 1 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 43% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Halmstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Halmstad and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Halmstad and Mjallby AIF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Mjallby AIF away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Halmstad's attack at 0.88x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.80x) against Halmstad's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
43%
2.35
30%
3.32
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.10
0.90
Mjallby AIF xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
8%
12.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Halmstad and 0.90 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Pre-Season
Mjallby AIF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Mjallby AIF have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Halmstad have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Halmstad
3
Draws
5
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Mjallby AIF?
From 9 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Mjallby AIF 2-0 Halmstad.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Halmstad and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 6, as Halmstad and Mjallby AIF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.20 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.90 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.88 / defence 1.03 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 43% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 27%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.