Halmstad 0-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Halmstad and IF Elfsborg meet at Örjans Vall in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Halmstad (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Halmstad have posted 2W 7D 1L at Örjans Vall — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. IF Elfsborg are 0.60 PPG clear of Halmstad in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Halmstad, 0 for IF Elfsborg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2021, ended 3–2 with Halmstad winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Halmstad half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 48% versus IF Elfsborg 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Halmstad 18% | IF Elfsborg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 0.92 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.635 / defence 0.878 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.252 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.116. Halmstad's attack strength of 0.635 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. IF Elfsborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Halmstad games / 57 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 27% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 43%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | IF Elfsborg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Halmstad 50% | IF Elfsborg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 27% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Halmstad 0.92 / IF Elfsborg 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.635 / def 0.878 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.252 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.23
IF Elfsborg xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Halmstad 0 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 27% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Halmstad and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and IF Elfsborg?
Record (1 meetings): Halmstad 1W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 0W.
What form are Halmstad and IF Elfsborg in?
Halmstad (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Halmstad's attack at 0.64x the league average against IF Elfsborg's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.25x) against Halmstad's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
27%
3.64
29%
3.42
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.14
1.23
IF Elfsborg xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
8%
12.43
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 14.4 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Halmstad and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.23 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Halmstad come into this having played 27 games, going 6W 12D 9L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.81 PPG from 27 outings (15W 4D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Halmstad — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Halmstad's home form reads 3W 9D 1L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.69 points per game from 13 outings (7W 1D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Halmstad are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.67 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Halmstad and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 6W 12D 9L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 15W 4D 8L in their last 27 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.38 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Halmstad or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Halmstad have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 6-1 on 3 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Halmstad have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Halmstad
1
Draws
6
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and IF Elfsborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 2, IF Elfsborg have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Halmstad 1-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 54%, IF Elfsborg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 8% for Halmstad and 62% for IF Elfsborg.
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 38%; Halmstad have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Halmstad play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Halmstad's recent matches and 46% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 8% of Halmstad's recent games and 62% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Halmstad have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Halmstad 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Halmstad 0-1 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 0.92 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.23 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Halmstad fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.64 / defence 0.88 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.25 / defence 0.96, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 27% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 43%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 18%, IF Elfsborg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.