Halmstad 0-5 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Halmstad at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Halmstad vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Örjans Vall plays host to Halmstad versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 30 March 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Halmstad's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Halmstad's home record at Örjans Vall: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Degerfors IF (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Degerfors IF haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Degerfors IF away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Halmstad's favour (1.20 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Halmstad lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Halmstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 43% versus Degerfors IF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 50% | Degerfors IF 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.70 xG and Degerfors IF 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.954 / defence 0.964 | Degerfors IF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.075. Data: 30 Halmstad games / 0 Degerfors IF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Halmstad 57% | Draw 24% | Degerfors IF 19%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Degerfors IF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Halmstad (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Degerfors IF lead the H2H ledger, but Halmstad carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Halmstad as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Halmstad 30% | Degerfors IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 57% | Draw 24% | Degerfors IF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Halmstad 1.70 / Degerfors IF 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.954 / def 0.964 | Degerfors IF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Halmstad (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Degerfors IF xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Halmstad vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Halmstad 0 - 5 Degerfors IF.
Where is Halmstad vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Degerfors IF part of?
Halmstad vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 57% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Halmstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Halmstad and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Degerfors IF?
Record (4 meetings): Halmstad 0W | Draws 2 | Degerfors IF 2W.
What form are Halmstad and Degerfors IF in?
Halmstad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Halmstad's attack at 0.95x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.85x) against Halmstad's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
57%
1.77
24%
4.17
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.58
0.88
Degerfors IF xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
4%
28.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Halmstad and 0.88 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Halmstad's recent record stands at 10W 3D 17L from 30 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 18L across 30 games — 0.87 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five. Degerfors IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Halmstad against 0.87 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Halmstad have managed 7W 2D 6L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Halmstad are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 2W 3D 10L across 15 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Halmstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Halmstad are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.00 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Halmstad and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 10W 3D 17L in their last 30 games (1.10 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 7W 5D 18L in their last 30 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or Degerfors IF away?
Halmstad's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.53 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Degerfors IF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 0-5 on 30 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Halmstad have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Halmstad
2
Draws
5
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Degerfors IF?
From 8 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 1, Degerfors IF have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Degerfors IF 2-0 Halmstad.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 33%, Degerfors IF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Halmstad) and 60% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Halmstad have failed to score in 33% of games; Degerfors IF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Halmstad play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Halmstad's recent matches and 53% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Halmstad vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Halmstad's recent games and 60% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Halmstad have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Degerfors IF run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Halmstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Halmstad 0-5 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.70 xG and Degerfors IF 0.88 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Halmstad fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Degerfors IF outscored their 0.88 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Degerfors IF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 57% | Draw 24% | Degerfors IF 19%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Degerfors IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 50%, Degerfors IF 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.10 PPG, Degerfors IF 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Halmstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.