GIF Sundsvall 2-3 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Sirius at NP3 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 3W 0D 7L at NP3 Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sirius's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — GIF Sundsvall at 0.40 PPG versus Sirius's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, Sirius 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Sirius winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Sirius in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 59% versus Sirius 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 53% | Sirius 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.22 xG and Sirius 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.858 / defence 1.680 | Sirius attack 0.747 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.192. Data: 28 GIF Sundsvall games / 58 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 29% | Draw 30% | Sirius 41%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Sirius 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 80% | Sirius 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 29% | Draw 30% | Sirius 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.22 / Sirius 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.858 / def 1.680 | Sirius attack 0.747 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Sirius (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Sirius xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Sirius kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Sirius?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 3 Sirius.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Sirius part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 29% chance of winning, Sirius a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Sirius?
Record (1 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 0 | Sirius 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Sirius in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Sirius (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.86) and Sirius's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
29%
3.50
30%
3.30
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.71
1.50
Sirius xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
6%
15.62
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.50 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 58 games, going 19W 10D 29L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.19 PPG from 58 outings (18W 15D 25L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.16 PPG, Sirius on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 13W 4D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 0.90 points per game from 29 outings (5W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.12 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Sirius in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 19W 10D 29L in their last 58 games (1.16 PPG), while Sirius have gone 18W 15D 25L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Sirius away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.48 PPG; Sirius away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Sirius runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
2
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Sirius?
From 2 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, Sirius have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2022, when GIF Sundsvall 2-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 59%, Sirius 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (GIF Sundsvall) and 59% (Sirius). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sirius in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 55% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 59% of Sirius's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Sirius tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sirius in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sirius edge out GIF Sundsvall 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat GIF Sundsvall 2-3 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.22 xG and Sirius 1.50 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sirius outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.86 / defence 1.68 against Sirius attack 0.75 / defence 0.97, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 29% | Draw 30% | Sirius 41%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 53%, Sirius 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.16 PPG, Sirius 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.