GIF Sundsvall 1-2 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Varnamo at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo meet at NP3 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 19 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall at NP3 Arena this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
IFK Varnamo have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
IFK Varnamo arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — GIF Sundsvall have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, IFK Varnamo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 1 for IFK Varnamo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
IFK Varnamo — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 59% versus IFK Varnamo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 52% | IFK Varnamo 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.64 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.896 / defence 1.697 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.969 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.190. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 GIF Sundsvall games / 26 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 31% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 44%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | IFK Varnamo 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Varnamo are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 80% | IFK Varnamo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 31% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 71% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.64 / IFK Varnamo 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.896 / def 1.697 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.969 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.96
IFK Varnamo xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 19 October 2022 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 2 IFK Varnamo.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 31% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo?
Record (3 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.90x the league average against IFK Varnamo's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (0.97x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.70x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
31%
3.20
25%
4.07
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.59
1.96
IFK Varnamo xG
3.20
31%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.40
Clean Sheet
14%
7.08
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
4%
22.67
9%
11.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.96 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIF Sundsvall's recent record stands at 19W 10D 27L from 56 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 26W 13D 17L across 56 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IFK Varnamo by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIF Sundsvall heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, GIF Sundsvall have managed 13W 4D 11L from 28 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 10W 6D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.32 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 19W 10D 27L in their last 56 games (1.20 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 26W 13D 17L in their last 56 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or IFK Varnamo away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.54 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.29 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
IFK Varnamo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Varnamo won 3-0 on 14 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
3
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo?
From 5 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, IFK Varnamo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2026, when IFK Varnamo 3-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 57%, IFK Varnamo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (GIF Sundsvall) and 57% (IFK Varnamo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 50% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 57% of IFK Varnamo's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Varnamo edge out GIF Sundsvall 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.64 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.96 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.90 / defence 1.70 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.97 / defence 1.24, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 31% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 44%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 52%, IFK Varnamo 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Varnamo arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.