GIF Sundsvall 3-2 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Goteborg at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Goteborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees IFK Goteborg travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's home record at NP3 Arena: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
IFK Goteborg — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. IFK Goteborg are 1.40 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for GIF Sundsvall, 1 for IFK Goteborg and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2022, ended 0–2 with IFK Goteborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
IFK Goteborg in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 57% versus IFK Goteborg 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 50% | IFK Goteborg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.03 xG and IFK Goteborg 2.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.767 / defence 1.772 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.210 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.147. GIF Sundsvall's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. IFK Goteborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.210 — the away xG of 2.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 GIF Sundsvall games / 54 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 13% | Draw 20% | IFK Goteborg 67%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 7.69 | Draw 5.00 | IFK Goteborg 1.49. The model has a clear lean to IFK Goteborg (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.03 / 2.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Goteborg at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 70% | IFK Goteborg 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 13% | Draw 20% | IFK Goteborg 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 60% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.03 / IFK Goteborg 2.46 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.767 / def 1.772 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.210 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
2.46
IFK Goteborg xG
60%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Goteborg?
GIF Sundsvall 3 - 2 IFK Goteborg.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Goteborg part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 13% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 67% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Goteborg?
Record (1 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 0 | IFK Goteborg 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Goteborg in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.77) and IFK Goteborg's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 2.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.2%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
13%
7.97
20%
4.94
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.49
2.46
IFK Goteborg xG
7.97
13%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
9%
11.70
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
1%
93.27
24%
4.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 2.46 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Goteborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 18W 10D 26L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 22W 11D 21L from 54 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.19 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 1.48 PPG from 27 outings (12W 4D 11L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 11W 5D 11L from 27 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.37 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 10D 26L in their last 54 games (1.19 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 22W 11D 21L in their last 54 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or IFK Goteborg away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.48 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.41 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Goteborg runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IFK Goteborg?
From 2 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2022, when GIF Sundsvall 3-2 IFK Goteborg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 56%, IFK Goteborg 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (GIF Sundsvall) and 52% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 41% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 52% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat IFK Goteborg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat IFK Goteborg 3-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.03 xG and IFK Goteborg 2.46 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.77 / defence 1.77 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.21 / defence 0.90, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 13% | Draw 20% | IFK Goteborg 67%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a GIF Sundsvall win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 50%, IFK Goteborg 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.19 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.