Gais 1-1 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gais at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gais welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan (matchday 5). Kick-off is Thursday 24 April 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Gais — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Gais have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, IF Brommapojkarna have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Gais have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Gais, 2 for IF Brommapojkarna and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Gais 0–2 IF Brommapojkarna — a IF Brommapojkarna win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gais trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 43% versus IF Brommapojkarna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 55% | IF Brommapojkarna 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.26 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.935 / defence 0.739 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.028 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.258. Gais have a tight defence (rating 0.739), which is pulling IF Brommapojkarna's projected output down. Data: built from Gais's last 34 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 34.
Result probabilities: Gais 43% | Draw 29% | IF Brommapojkarna 28%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.31 | Draw 3.50 | IF Brommapojkarna 3.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gais 30% (last 10 home games) | IF Brommapojkarna 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 5 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Thursday 24 April 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 43% | Draw 29% | IF Brommapojkarna 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Gais 1.26 / IF Brommapojkarna 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.935 / def 0.739 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.028 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Gais (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.95
IF Brommapojkarna xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna FAQs
What time does Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Thursday 24 April 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Gais 1 - 1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 5) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 43% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gais and IF Brommapojkarna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.94) and IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gais's last 34 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
43%
2.31
29%
3.50
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Gais xG
Total xG
2.21
0.95
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
8%
12.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gais and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Gais and 0.95 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Gais have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 31W 12D 17L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
IF Brommapojkarna's form line: 19W 14D 27L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Gais are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IF Brommapojkarna.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gais have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 30 home games (18W 6D 6L).
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 10W 6D 14L from their last 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gais are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.52 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna in 60%.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Current Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
Gais (Home) vs IF Brommapojkarna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gais
Current Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
❓ Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna Form FAQs
What form are Gais and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 games (1.75 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Gais's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 2.00 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Gais or IF Brommapojkarna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, IF Brommapojkarna in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 31 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Mar 2024, when IF Brommapojkarna won Gais 0-4 IF Brommapojkarna.
Gais's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Gais
2
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IF Brommapojkarna?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Gais have won 2, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gais and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2026: Gais 4-0 IF Brommapojkarna.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 40%, IF Brommapojkarna 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gais) and 63% (IF Brommapojkarna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gais vs IF Brommapojkarna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gais and IF Brommapojkarna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Gais's recent matches and 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gais and IF Brommapojkarna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Gais's matches and 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Gais and IF Brommapojkarna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Gais's recent matches and 83% of IF Brommapojkarna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gais and IF Brommapojkarna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 5, as Gais and IF Brommapojkarna drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.26 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 0.95 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.94 / defence 0.74 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.03 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 43% | Draw 29% | IF Brommapojkarna 28%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 55%, IF Brommapojkarna 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.