Djurgardens IF 2-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ostersunds FK make the trip to Tele2 Arena to face Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Wednesday 12 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Djurgardens IF (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Djurgardens IF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ostersunds FK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Djurgardens IF's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Ostersunds FK's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Djurgardens IF lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 53% versus Ostersunds FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 60% | Ostersunds FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.38 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.177 / defence 0.837 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.802 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.044. Data: 35 Djurgardens IF games / 35 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 53% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 19%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Ostersunds FK 5.26. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Djurgardens IF 70% | Ostersunds FK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 53% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.38 / Ostersunds FK 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.177 / def 0.837 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.802 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Ostersunds FK xG
38%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 12 May 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Djurgardens IF 2 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 53% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK?
Record (2 meetings): Djurgardens IF 0W | Draws 2 | Ostersunds FK 0W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.18) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.80x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.51
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.08
0.70
Ostersunds FK xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
5%
21.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.1 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.70 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 30 games, going 14W 6D 10L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 1.10 PPG from 30 outings (8W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 7W 4D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 1.53 points per game from 15 outings (6W 5D 4L). That's actually stronger than their 1.10 PPG overall record — Ostersunds FK travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.90 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.67 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Djurgardens IF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-3 on 26 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
0
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2021, when Ostersunds FK 0-3 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 60%, Ostersunds FK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Djurgardens IF) and 47% (Ostersunds FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 40%; Ostersunds FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 40% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 47% of Ostersunds FK's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Ostersunds FK 2-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.38 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.70 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.18 / defence 0.84 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.80 / defence 0.85, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 53% | Draw 28% | Ostersunds FK 19%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 60%, Ostersunds FK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.