Djurgardens IF 3-3 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Djurgardens IF face BK Hacken.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Djurgardens IF welcome BK Hacken to Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 2). Kick-off is Monday 8 April 2024 at 19:10 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
BK Hacken — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BK Hacken's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Djurgardens IF) versus 1.30 (BK Hacken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Djurgardens IF have won 3, BK Hacken 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 May 2023, ended Djurgardens IF 1–0 BK Hacken — a Djurgardens IF win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Djurgardens IF trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BK Hacken trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 42% versus BK Hacken 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 52% | BK Hacken 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.47 xG and BK Hacken 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.016 / defence 0.994 | BK Hacken attack 0.963 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.416. Data: built from Djurgardens IF's last 31 games and BK Hacken's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 40% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 35%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.50 | Draw 3.99 | BK Hacken 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Djurgardens IF's last 10 home games and BK Hacken's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Djurgardens IF 40% (last 10 home games) | BK Hacken 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Djurgardens IF 31 games, BK Hacken 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 2 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 8 April 2024 at 19:10 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 40% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Djurgardens IF 1.47 / BK Hacken 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.016 / def 0.994 | BK Hacken attack 0.963 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.36
BK Hacken xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken FAQs
What time does Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 19:10 UK time on Monday 8 April 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Djurgardens IF 3 - 3 BK Hacken.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken part of?
Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 2) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 40% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Djurgardens IF's last 31 games and BK Hacken's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
40%
2.50
25%
3.99
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.83
1.36
BK Hacken xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.36 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 60 games, going 32W 11D 17L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 2.02 PPG from 60 outings (36W 13D 11L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.78 PPG, BK Hacken on 2.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 21W 3D 6L across their last 30 home games, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Djurgardens IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 1.60 points per game from their last 30 away games (13W 9D 8L). That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.30 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 73%.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
Djurgardens IF (Home) vs BK Hacken (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken Form FAQs
What form are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 32W 11D 17L in their last 60 games (1.78 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 36W 13D 11L in their last 60 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or BK Hacken away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.20 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 6 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Djurgardens IF have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Jul 2025, when Djurgardens IF won BK Hacken 1-6 Djurgardens IF.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
2
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Djurgardens IF have won 6, BK Hacken have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 July 2026: BK Hacken 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 40%, BK Hacken 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Djurgardens IF and 57% for BK Hacken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 67% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 57% of BK Hacken's.
Do Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 70% of BK Hacken's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 2, as Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken drew 3-3 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.47 xG and BK Hacken 1.36 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BK Hacken outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.02 / defence 0.99 against BK Hacken attack 0.96 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 40% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 35%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 52%, BK Hacken 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.78 PPG, BK Hacken 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.