Degerfors IF 3-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 20 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Degerfors IF have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Degerfors IF are significantly better at Stora Valla than their overall form suggests.
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Degerfors IF, 1.20 for IFK Goteborg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Degerfors IF 1W, IFK Goteborg 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2022, ended 0–2 with IFK Goteborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 52% versus IFK Goteborg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 52% | IFK Goteborg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.38 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.899 / defence 0.868 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.134 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.201. Data: 56 Degerfors IF games / 56 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 39% | Draw 30% | IFK Goteborg 30%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | IFK Goteborg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 60% | IFK Goteborg 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 39% | Draw 30% | IFK Goteborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Degerfors IF 1.38 / IFK Goteborg 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.899 / def 0.868 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.134 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.18
IFK Goteborg xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 20 October 2022 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Degerfors IF 3 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 39% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg?
Record (3 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 0 | IFK Goteborg 2W.
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.90) and IFK Goteborg's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (1.13x) against Degerfors IF's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
39%
2.53
30%
3.28
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.56
1.18
IFK Goteborg xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
8%
13.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.18 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF come into this having played 56 games, going 15W 12D 29L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IFK Goteborg sit at 1.43 PPG from 56 outings (23W 11D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Degerfors IF's home form reads 11W 6D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Goteborg have taken 1.36 points per game from 28 outings (11W 5D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.39 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 15W 12D 29L in their last 56 games (1.02 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 23W 11D 22L in their last 56 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.39 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
IFK Goteborg have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 6-0 on 4 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
7
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 2, IFK Goteborg have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when IFK Goteborg 2-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 54%, IFK Goteborg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Degerfors IF) and 54% (IFK Goteborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 32% of games; IFK Goteborg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 43% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Degerfors IF's matches and 54% of IFK Goteborg's.
Do Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat IFK Goteborg 3-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.38 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.18 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.90 / defence 0.87 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.13 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 39% | Draw 30% | IFK Goteborg 30%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 52%, IFK Goteborg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Goteborg arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Degerfors IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.