Degerfors IF 2-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Djurgardens IF make the trip to Stora Valla to face Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.77 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.711 / defence 1.099 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.283 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.097. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Djurgardens IF have an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 Degerfors IF games / 34 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 18% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 55%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Djurgardens IF 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 18% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Degerfors IF 0.77 / Djurgardens IF 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.711 / def 1.099 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.283 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Djurgardens IF xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 May 2021 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Degerfors IF 2 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 18% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Djurgardens IF away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.71x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.28x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-2 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
18%
5.58
27%
3.70
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.32
1.55
Djurgardens IF xG
5.58
18%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
4%
26.20
25%
3.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 15.2 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.55 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
Djurgardens IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 5-1 on 6 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
5
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Djurgardens IF 2-0 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.77 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.55 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Djurgardens IF landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.71 / defence 1.10 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.28 / defence 0.83, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 18% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 55%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Degerfors IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.