Degerfors IF 1-2 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 2 as Degerfors IF welcome BK Hacken to Behrn Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Degerfors IF's home record at Behrn Arena: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BK Hacken's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Degerfors IF 1.60 PPG, BK Hacken 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Degerfors IF, 1 for BK Hacken and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with BK Hacken winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Degerfors IF trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BK Hacken trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 47% versus BK Hacken 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 57% | BK Hacken 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.60 xG and BK Hacken 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.038 / defence 1.041 | BK Hacken attack 0.971 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.381. Data: 31 Degerfors IF games / 31 BK Hacken games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 42% | Draw 24% | BK Hacken 33%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | BK Hacken 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 70% | BK Hacken 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 42% | Draw 24% | BK Hacken 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Degerfors IF 1.60 / BK Hacken 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.038 / def 1.041 | BK Hacken attack 0.971 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.40
BK Hacken xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Degerfors IF 1 - 2 BK Hacken.
Where is Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken part of?
Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 42% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Degerfors IF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and BK Hacken?
Record (2 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 0 | BK Hacken 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and BK Hacken in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
42%
2.35
24%
4.14
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
3.00
1.40
BK Hacken xG
2.35
42%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
7%
14.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.40 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Degerfors IF have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 10W 4D 16L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
BK Hacken's form line: 9W 9D 12L from 30 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.13 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Degerfors IF have posted 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (7W 1D 7L).
On the road, BK Hacken have gone 3W 6D 6L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.53 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 10W 4D 16L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or BK Hacken away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.47 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when BK Hacken won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
3
Draws
3
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and BK Hacken?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, BK Hacken have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 1-1 BK Hacken.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, BK Hacken 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Degerfors IF and 53% for BK Hacken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Degerfors IF's games and 73% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Degerfors IF's matches and 53% of BK Hacken's.
Do Degerfors IF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as BK Hacken defy the odds to beat Degerfors IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Degerfors IF 1-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.60 xG and BK Hacken 1.40 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against BK Hacken attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 42% | Draw 24% | BK Hacken 33%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual BK Hacken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 57%, BK Hacken 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
BK Hacken's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.13 PPG, BK Hacken 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.