Degerfors IF 1-0 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours BK Hacken (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Degerfors IF face BK Hacken.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 22 as Degerfors IF welcome BK Hacken to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. BK Hacken are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Degerfors IF, 3 for BK Hacken and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 1–6 with BK Hacken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Degerfors IF trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BK Hacken trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 59% and BK Hacken 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 57% | BK Hacken 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.37 xG and BK Hacken 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.863 / defence 1.174 | BK Hacken attack 1.166 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.223. Data: 51 Degerfors IF games / 51 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 31% | Draw 24% | BK Hacken 45%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | BK Hacken 2.22. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 60% | BK Hacken 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 31% | Draw 24% | BK Hacken 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Degerfors IF 1.37 / BK Hacken 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.863 / def 1.174 | BK Hacken attack 1.166 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.68
BK Hacken xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Degerfors IF 1 - 0 BK Hacken.
Where is Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken part of?
Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 31% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Degerfors IF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and BK Hacken?
Record (5 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 1 | BK Hacken 3W.
What form are Degerfors IF and BK Hacken in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. BK Hacken (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
31%
3.18
24%
4.20
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
3.04
1.68
BK Hacken xG
3.18
31%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
6%
16.96
11%
8.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.68 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Degerfors IF have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 13W 12D 26L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken's form line: 32W 12D 7L from 51 games, 2.12 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BK Hacken are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Degerfors IF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Degerfors IF have posted 1.40 PPG from 25 outings (9W 8D 8L).
On the road, BK Hacken have gone 13W 8D 4L from 25 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.37 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 75%.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 13W 12D 26L in their last 51 games (1.00 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 32W 12D 7L in their last 51 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or BK Hacken away?
BK Hacken's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.40 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when BK Hacken won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
3
Draws
3
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and BK Hacken?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, BK Hacken have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 1-1 BK Hacken.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 56%, BK Hacken 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Degerfors IF) and 56% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Degerfors IF's games and 68% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 56% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat BK Hacken 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat BK Hacken 1-0 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.37 xG and BK Hacken 1.68 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. BK Hacken landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against BK Hacken attack 1.17 / defence 1.08, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 31% | Draw 24% | BK Hacken 45%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 57%, BK Hacken 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
BK Hacken's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Degerfors IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.