Degerfors IF 2-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 21 as Degerfors IF welcome AIK Stockholm to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 4L across 9 games at Stora Valla this term (1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Degerfors IF are significantly better at Stora Valla than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AIK Stockholm's 2.40 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Degerfors IF's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Degerfors IF, 1 for AIK Stockholm and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2021, ended 0–2 with AIK Stockholm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 40% versus AIK Stockholm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 55% | AIK Stockholm 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.00 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.875 / defence 1.314 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.025 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.067. AIK Stockholm's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 20 Degerfors IF games / 50 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 24% | Draw 31% | AIK Stockholm 45%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | AIK Stockholm 2.22. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AIK Stockholm are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 33% | AIK Stockholm 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Monday 27 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 24% | Draw 31% | AIK Stockholm 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Degerfors IF 1.00 / AIK Stockholm 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.875 / def 1.314 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.025 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.44
AIK Stockholm xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 September 2021 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Degerfors IF 2 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 24% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.88) and AIK Stockholm's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
24%
4.10
31%
3.27
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
0 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.44
1.44
AIK Stockholm xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
6%
17.23
16%
6.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.44 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Degerfors IF come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 3D 12L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 2.05 PPG from 20 outings (12W 5D 3L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Degerfors IF's home form reads 4W 1D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Degerfors IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L). That's a step down from their 2.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AIK Stockholm's season.
The Goals Picture
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.50 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 5W 3D 12L in their last 20 games (0.90 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 12W 5D 3L in their last 20 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.44 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jul 2025, when AIK Stockholm won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 2-1 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 33%, AIK Stockholm 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Degerfors IF) and 33% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 33% of games; AIK Stockholm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 56% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 33% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat AIK Stockholm 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat AIK Stockholm 2-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.00 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.44 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.88 / defence 1.31 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.02 / defence 0.78, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 24% | Draw 31% | AIK Stockholm 45%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Degerfors IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 55%, AIK Stockholm 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Degerfors IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.