BK Hacken 2-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 25 as BK Hacken welcome Mjallby AIF to Bravida Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 October 2020 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, BK Hacken have posted 7W 2D 1L at Bravida Arena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bravida Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, BK Hacken have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 48% versus Mjallby AIF 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 52% | Mjallby AIF 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.94 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.206 / defence 0.779 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.867 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.392. Mjallby AIF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.404 — this is suppressing BK Hacken's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. BK Hacken's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 23 BK Hacken games / 24 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 59% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 16%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Mjallby AIF 6.25. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: BK Hacken 30% | Mjallby AIF 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2020, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 59% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG BK Hacken 1.94 / Mjallby AIF 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.206 / def 0.779 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.867 / def 1.404 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Mjallby AIF xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 October 2020 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
BK Hacken 2 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF part of?
BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 59% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.21) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
59%
1.70
25%
3.96
16%
6.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.88
0.94
Mjallby AIF xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
6.32
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
2%
44.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for BK Hacken and 0.94 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BK Hacken come into this having played 23 games, going 10W 9D 4L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (8W 7D 8L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.70 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
BK Hacken's home form reads 7W 3D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.52 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF in 70%.
Defensively: BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 10W 9D 4L in their last 23 games (1.70 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 8W 7D 8L in their last 23 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Mjallby AIF away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.18 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.09 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2023, when BK Hacken won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BK Hacken
1
Draws
5
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 36%, Mjallby AIF 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (BK Hacken) and 54% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 64% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of BK Hacken's recent games and 54% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 25, as BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.94 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.94 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.21 / defence 0.78 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.87 / defence 1.40, drawn from 23/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 59% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 16%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 52%, Mjallby AIF 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.70 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BK Hacken (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.