AIK Stockholm 0-0 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Sirius travel to Friends Arena to take on AIK Stockholm. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 April 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
AIK Stockholm's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Friends Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sirius's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (AIK Stockholm) versus 1.00 (Sirius). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AIK Stockholm, 0 for Sirius and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Sirius in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 47% versus Sirius 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 42% | Sirius 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.22 xG and Sirius 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.882 / defence 1.091 | Sirius attack 0.996 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.009. Data: 34 AIK Stockholm games / 34 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 39% | Draw 28% | Sirius 33%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Sirius 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 50% | Sirius 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 39% | Draw 28% | Sirius 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.22 / Sirius 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.882 / def 1.091 | Sirius attack 0.996 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sirius xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Sirius kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 0 Sirius.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Sirius part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 39% chance of winning, Sirius a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Sirius?
Record (3 meetings): AIK Stockholm 1W | Draws 2 | Sirius 0W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Sirius in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Sirius (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 0.88x the league average against Sirius's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.55
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.32
1.10
Sirius xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
10%
10.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.10 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AIK Stockholm's recent record stands at 32W 13D 15L from 60 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 26L across 60 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AIK Stockholm by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sirius heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AIK Stockholm have managed 21W 6D 3L from 30 games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — AIK Stockholm are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sirius's away record stands at 6W 11D 13L across 30 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.17 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Sirius in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 32W 13D 15L in their last 60 games (1.82 PPG), while Sirius have gone 19W 15D 26L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Sirius away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 2.30 PPG; Sirius away: 0.97 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sirius in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AIK Stockholm and Sirius runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2026, when Sirius won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Sirius have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Sirius?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 37%, Sirius 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (AIK Stockholm) and 60% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Sirius in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 57% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 60% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Sirius tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sirius in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AIK Stockholm's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 5, as AIK Stockholm and Sirius drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.22 xG and Sirius 1.10 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AIK Stockholm fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sirius landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Sirius attack 1.00 / defence 0.92, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 39% | Draw 28% | Sirius 33%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 42%, Sirius 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.