AIK Stockholm 1-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Malmo FF make the trip to Friends Arena to face AIK Stockholm in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Thursday 13 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
AIK Stockholm (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
AIK Stockholm's home record at Friends Arena: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Friends Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Malmo FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Malmo FF's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for AIK Stockholm, 2.00 for Malmo FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
AIK Stockholm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Malmo FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 33% versus Malmo FF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 33% | Malmo FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.56 xG and Malmo FF 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.032 / defence 0.640 | Malmo FF attack 1.160 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.095. AIK Stockholm's defence rating of 0.640 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 AIK Stockholm games / 35 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 54% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 19%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Malmo FF 5.26. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 10% | Malmo FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 13 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 54% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.56 / Malmo FF 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.032 / def 0.640 | Malmo FF attack 1.160 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Malmo FF xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 13 May 2021 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 54% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 1.03x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Malmo FF's attack (1.16x) against AIK Stockholm's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.67
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.37
0.81
Malmo FF xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
4%
25.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.81 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 9D 11L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 2.00 PPG from 30 outings (17W 9D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 6W 2D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.53 points per game from 15 outings (6W 5D 4L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Malmo FF's season.
Attack vs Defence
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.13 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF in 60%.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Malmo FF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 17W 9D 4L in their last 30 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.33 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.53 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Malmo FF won 5-0 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AIK Stockholm have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Malmo FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AIK Stockholm
4
Draws
5
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 1, Malmo FF have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when AIK Stockholm 0-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 27%, Malmo FF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (AIK Stockholm) and 67% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; AIK Stockholm have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 67% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 67% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF finished level at 1-1 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.56 xG and Malmo FF 0.81 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.03 / defence 0.64 against Malmo FF attack 1.16 / defence 1.13, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 54% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 19%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 33%, Malmo FF 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Malmo FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.