AIK Stockholm 0-0 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AIK Stockholm face Malmo FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Malmo FF make the trip to Strawberry Arena to face AIK Stockholm in Allsvenskan (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
AIK Stockholm (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
AIK Stockholm's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Malmo FF's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Malmo FF's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for AIK Stockholm, 2.00 for Malmo FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for AIK Stockholm, 3 for Malmo FF and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2024, ended AIK Stockholm 0–5 Malmo FF — a Malmo FF win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AIK Stockholm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Malmo FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 53% versus Malmo FF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 51% | Malmo FF 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.63 xG and Malmo FF 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.056 / defence 0.896 | Malmo FF attack 1.260 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.382. Malmo FF have an above-average attack rating of 1.260, which lifts their away xG to 1.56. Data: built from AIK Stockholm's last 51 games and Malmo FF's last 51.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 40% | Draw 23% | Malmo FF 37%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.52 | Draw 4.26 | Malmo FF 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.63 / 1.56) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AIK Stockholm's last 10 home games and Malmo FF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 home games) | Malmo FF 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 22 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 40% | Draw 23% | Malmo FF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG AIK Stockholm 1.63 / Malmo FF 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.056 / def 0.896 | Malmo FF attack 1.260 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Malmo FF xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF FAQs
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 0 Malmo FF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 22) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 40% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 1.06x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Malmo FF's attack (1.26x) against AIK Stockholm's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from AIK Stockholm's last 51 games and Malmo FF's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
40%
2.52
23%
4.26
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
3.19
1.56
Malmo FF xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
8%
12.00
7%
13.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.56 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 51 games, going 20W 11D 20L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 2.20 PPG from 51 outings (35W 7D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 13W 6D 6L across their last 25 home games, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — AIK Stockholm are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.84 points per game from their last 25 away games (14W 4D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.25 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
AIK Stockholm (Home) vs Malmo FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF Form FAQs
What form are AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 20W 11D 20L in their last 51 games (1.39 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 35W 7D 9L in their last 51 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.80 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.84 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Malmo FF won Malmo FF 5-0 AIK Stockholm on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AIK Stockholm have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Malmo FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AIK Stockholm
5
Draws
4
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AIK Stockholm have won 1, Malmo FF have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Malmo FF 0-0 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 48%, Malmo FF 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (AIK Stockholm) and 64% (Malmo FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Malmo FF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 48% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of AIK Stockholm's matches and 64% of Malmo FF's.
Do AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 80% of Malmo FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AIK Stockholm's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 22, as AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.63 xG and Malmo FF 1.56 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AIK Stockholm fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Malmo FF landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.06 / defence 0.90 against Malmo FF attack 1.26 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 40% | Draw 23% | Malmo FF 37%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 51%, Malmo FF 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Malmo FF's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.