AIK Stockholm 1-0 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host Kalmar FF at Friends Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 8W 1D 1L at Friends Arena — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Friends Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — AIK Stockholm are significantly better at Friends Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Kalmar FF have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AIK Stockholm 1.90 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AIK Stockholm, 1 for Kalmar FF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 44% versus Kalmar FF 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 40% | Kalmar FF 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.32 xG and Kalmar FF 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.919 / defence 0.795 | Kalmar FF attack 1.035 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.079. AIK Stockholm's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 AIK Stockholm games / 43 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 46% | Draw 30% | Kalmar FF 24%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Kalmar FF 4.17. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AIK Stockholm are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 20% | Kalmar FF 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 46% | Draw 30% | Kalmar FF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.32 / Kalmar FF 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.919 / def 0.795 | Kalmar FF attack 1.035 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Kalmar FF xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 0 Kalmar FF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 46% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF?
Record (3 meetings): AIK Stockholm 1W | Draws 1 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Kalmar FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AIK Stockholm's attack rating (0.92) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
46%
2.18
30%
3.37
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.20
0.89
Kalmar FF xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
7%
15.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.89 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, AIK Stockholm have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 24W 9D 10L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF's form line: 19W 11D 13L from 43 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.88 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AIK Stockholm have posted 2.57 PPG from 21 outings (17W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.88 PPG overall — AIK Stockholm are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 9W 5D 7L from 21 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.33 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 24W 9D 10L in their last 43 games (1.88 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 19W 11D 13L in their last 43 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Kalmar FF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 2.57 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.52 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AIK Stockholm go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
3
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when AIK Stockholm 1-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 33%, Kalmar FF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AIK Stockholm) and 52% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 62% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 52% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Kalmar FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Kalmar FF 1-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.32 xG and Kalmar FF 0.89 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kalmar FF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.92 / defence 0.80 against Kalmar FF attack 1.03 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 46% | Draw 30% | Kalmar FF 24%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 40%, Kalmar FF 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.88 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.