AIK Stockholm 2-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host Degerfors IF at Friends Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 12 April 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
AIK Stockholm's home record at Friends Arena: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Friends Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.42 xG and Degerfors IF 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.939 / defence 0.943 | Degerfors IF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.211. Data: 30 AIK Stockholm games / 0 Degerfors IF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 45% | Draw 32% | Degerfors IF 23%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Degerfors IF 4.35. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Monday 12 Apr 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 45% | Draw 32% | Degerfors IF 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.42 / Degerfors IF 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.939 / def 0.943 | Degerfors IF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Degerfors IF xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 12 April 2021 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
AIK Stockholm 2 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 45% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. AIK Stockholm home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 0.94x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
45%
2.24
32%
3.12
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.39
0.97
Degerfors IF xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
6%
17.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.97 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Pre-Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jul 2025, when AIK Stockholm won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
2
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 2-1 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Degerfors IF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
AIK Stockholm cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Degerfors IF 2-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.42 xG and Degerfors IF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Degerfors IF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 45% | Draw 32% | Degerfors IF 23%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.