Villarreal 1-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villarreal vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Villarreal welcome Valencia to Estadio de la Cerámica. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 March 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Villarreal — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Villarreal have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estadio de la Cerámica — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valencia stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valencia have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Villarreal) versus 2.00 (Valencia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Villarreal, 2 for Valencia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2024, ended 1–3 with Valencia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Valencia in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 65% versus Valencia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 57% | Valencia 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.77 xG and Valencia 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.134 / defence 1.201 | Valencia attack 0.971 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.111. Data: 66 Villarreal games / 65 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 47% | Draw 26% | Valencia 27%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Valencia 3.70. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 80% | Valencia 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 47% | Draw 26% | Valencia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Villarreal 1.77 / Valencia 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.134 / def 1.201 | Valencia attack 0.971 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Valencia xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Valencia kick off?
Villarreal vs Valencia kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Valencia?
Villarreal 1 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Villarreal vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Valencia part of?
Villarreal vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 47% chance of winning, Valencia a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Villarreal and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valencia?
Record (5 meetings): Villarreal 2W | Draws 1 | Valencia 2W.
What form are Villarreal and Valencia in?
Villarreal (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Valencia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Villarreal's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Valencia's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.82
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Villarreal xG
Total xG
3.06
1.29
Valencia xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.74
5%
21.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.29 for Valencia, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Villarreal come into this having played 65 games, going 27W 15D 23L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.26 PPG from 65 outings (22W 16D 27L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Villarreal on 1.48 PPG, Valencia on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Villarreal's home form reads 15W 7D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.78 points per game from 32 outings (6W 7D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Villarreal are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.14 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Current Season
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Valencia in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 27W 15D 23L in their last 65 games (1.48 PPG), while Valencia have gone 22W 16D 27L in their last 65 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Valencia away?
Villarreal's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.62 PPG; Valencia away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Villarreal have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Villarreal's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valencia?
From 10 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 5, Valencia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Villarreal 2-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Valencia?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 72%, Valencia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Villarreal) and 47% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Valencia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Villarreal's games and 53% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Villarreal's recent games and 47% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Valencia tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Valencia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Valencia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Valencia 1-0 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.77 xG and Valencia 1.29 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valencia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.13 / defence 1.20 against Valencia attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 47% | Draw 26% | Valencia 27%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 57%, Valencia 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Valencia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.48 PPG, Valencia 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.