Sevilla 3-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sevilla at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sevilla vs Granada CF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Granada CF travel to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to take on Sevilla. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sevilla — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sevilla's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Granada CF stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Granada CF away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sevilla are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sevilla, 1 for Granada CF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2023, ended 3–0 with Sevilla winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sevilla in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Granada CF in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 61% versus Granada CF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 48% | Granada CF 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.87 xG and Granada CF 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.016 / defence 1.206 | Granada CF attack 0.742 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.098. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Sevilla's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Sevilla games / 33 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 58% | Draw 23% | Granada CF 19%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Granada CF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sevilla (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 70% | Granada CF 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 58% | Draw 23% | Granada CF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Sevilla 1.87 / Granada CF 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 1.016 / def 1.206 | Granada CF attack 0.742 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Granada CF xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Granada CF kick off?
Sevilla vs Granada CF kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Granada CF?
Sevilla 3 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Sevilla vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Granada CF part of?
Sevilla vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 58% chance of winning, Granada CF a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sevilla and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Granada CF?
Record (3 meetings): Sevilla 2W | Draws 0 | Granada CF 1W.
What form are Sevilla and Granada CF in?
Sevilla (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Granada CF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sevilla's attack rating (1.02) and Granada CF's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.39
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.85
0.98
Granada CF xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
15%
6.50
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
3%
33.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.98 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Granada CF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Sevilla have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 9W 11D 13L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Granada CF's form line: 4W 9D 20L from 33 games, 0.64 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Sevilla are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Granada CF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sevilla have posted 1.25 PPG from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L).
On the road, Granada CF have gone 0W 3D 13L from 16 away games — 0.19 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Granada CF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.09 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Current Season
Granada CF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 9W 11D 13L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 4W 9D 20L in their last 33 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Granada CF away?
Sevilla's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.25 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sevilla have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2023, when Sevilla won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sevilla's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sevilla
0
Draws
1
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 3, Granada CF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Sevilla 3-0 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Granada CF?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 75%, Granada CF 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sevilla) and 38% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Granada CF in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Granada CF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sevilla's games and 44% of Granada CF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sevilla vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sevilla's recent games and 38% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Granada CF tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sevilla run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Granada CF 3-0 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.87 xG and Granada CF 0.98 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sevilla beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Granada CF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.02 / defence 1.21 against Granada CF attack 0.74 / defence 1.29, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 58% | Draw 23% | Granada CF 19%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 48%, Granada CF 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Granada CF's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.