Sevilla 1-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sevilla vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to face Sevilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 January 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sevilla have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sevilla have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Cadiz (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Sevilla against 1.20 for Cadiz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sevilla lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Sevilla — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Cadiz — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 58% versus Cadiz 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sevilla 34% | Cadiz 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.16 xG and Cadiz 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.903 / defence 1.113 | Cadiz attack 0.845 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.036. Data: 55 Sevilla games / 55 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 40% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 30%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Cadiz 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sevilla if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 50% | Cadiz 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 40% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Sevilla 1.16 / Cadiz 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.903 / def 1.113 | Cadiz attack 0.845 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cadiz xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Cadiz kick off?
Sevilla vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Sevilla 1 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Sevilla vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Cadiz part of?
Sevilla vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 40% chance of winning, Cadiz a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sevilla and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Cadiz?
Record (2 meetings): Sevilla 1W | Draws 1 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Sevilla and Cadiz in?
Sevilla (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Cadiz (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sevilla's attack at 0.90x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.84x) against Sevilla's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
40%
2.52
30%
3.34
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.13
0.97
Cadiz xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
10%
10.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.97 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sevilla come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 22D 12L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 1.00 PPG from 55 outings (11W 22D 22L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Cadiz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sevilla's home form reads 13W 9D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 1.07 points per game from 27 outings (7W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sevilla are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.85 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 55 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 21W 22D 12L in their last 55 games (1.55 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 11W 22D 22L in their last 55 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Cadiz away?
Sevilla's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.78 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Sevilla or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cadiz in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sevilla
2
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 3, Cadiz have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2024, when Sevilla 0-1 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Cadiz?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 56%, Cadiz 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sevilla) and 41% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Sevilla keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cadiz in 37%; Cadiz in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sevilla's recent matches and 41% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sevilla's recent games and 41% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Cadiz tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sevilla edge out Cadiz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Cadiz 1-0 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.16 xG and Cadiz 0.97 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cadiz landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Cadiz attack 0.84 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 40% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 30%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 34%, Cadiz 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cadiz's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Sevilla (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.