Real Sociedad 0-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Sociedad vs Valencia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Reale Arena plays host to Real Sociedad versus Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Real Sociedad (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Real Sociedad have posted 4W 2D 0L at Reale Arena — 2.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.17 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 6 home games (83%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Reale Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Valencia's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Real Sociedad. A 1.20 PPG lead over Valencia (2.20 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Real Sociedad half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
Valencia half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Sociedad 38% versus Valencia 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Sociedad 23% | Valencia 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 1.27 xG and Valencia 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 0.791 / defence 0.830 | Valencia attack 0.875 / defence 1.528. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.122. Real Sociedad's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Valencia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.528 — this is suppressing Real Sociedad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Real Sociedad games / 13 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 46% | Draw 31% | Valencia 23%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Valencia 4.35. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Real Sociedad 17% | Valencia 83%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Reale Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Sociedad 46% | Draw 31% | Valencia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Real Sociedad 1.27 / Valencia 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Real Sociedad attack 0.791 / def 0.830 | Valencia attack 0.875 / def 1.528 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Real Sociedad xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Valencia xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Sociedad vs Valencia kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Valencia kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Reale Arena.
What was the final score in Real Sociedad vs Valencia?
Real Sociedad 0 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Reale Arena.
What competition is Real Sociedad vs Valencia part of?
Real Sociedad vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Sociedad vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Real Sociedad a 46% chance of winning, Valencia a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Real Sociedad and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Real Sociedad vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Valencia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Real Sociedad and Valencia in?
Real Sociedad (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Valencia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Real Sociedad's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Valencia's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (0.88x) against Real Sociedad's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.20
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Real Sociedad xG
Total xG
2.08
0.81
Valencia xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
6%
15.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Real Sociedad and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 0.81 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Sociedad vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Real Sociedad have picked up 2.15 PPG on a 8W 4D 1L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valencia's form line: 4W 5D 4L from 13 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Real Sociedad are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valencia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Real Sociedad have posted 2.33 PPG from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L).
On the road, Valencia have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Sociedad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Real Sociedad are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.62 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia in 69%.
Defensively: Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Sociedad
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Sociedad and Valencia in coming into this match?
Real Sociedad have gone 8W 4D 1L in their last 13 games (2.15 PPG), while Valencia have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Sociedad at home or Valencia away?
Real Sociedad's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Sociedad at home: 2.33 PPG; Valencia away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Real Sociedad or Valencia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Valencia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Sociedad won 3-0 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Sociedad have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Real Sociedad
4
Draws
3
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Valencia?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Sociedad have won 3, Valencia have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Real Sociedad and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Real Sociedad 3-4 Valencia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Real Sociedad tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Sociedad 17%, Valencia 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Real Sociedad and 67% for Valencia.
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet in 83% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Sociedad home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Sociedad play Valencia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Real Sociedad's recent matches and 83% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Sociedad vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Real Sociedad's recent games and 67% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Sociedad and Valencia tend to score early?
Real Sociedad have had a goal before half-time in 17% of their recent matches, Valencia in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Real Sociedad's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad and Valencia finished level at 0-0 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.27 xG and Valencia 0.81 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Real Sociedad fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Valencia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.79 / defence 0.83 against Valencia attack 0.88 / defence 1.53, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 46% | Draw 31% | Valencia 23%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 23%, Valencia 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Sociedad's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
Valencia's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.