Real Betis 1-0 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Betis at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Real Betis face Las Palmas.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Real Betis welcome Las Palmas to Estadio Benito Villamarín in La Liga (matchday 14). Kick-off is Sunday 26 November 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Real Betis — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Real Betis at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Las Palmas stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Las Palmas's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 4L across their last 7 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Real Betis at 1.70 PPG versus Las Palmas's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Real Betis in-play tendencies (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Las Palmas in-play tendencies (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 62% versus Las Palmas 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Real Betis 38% | Las Palmas 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.37 xG and Las Palmas 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 1.003 / defence 0.712 | Las Palmas attack 0.748 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.210. Las Palmas's attack rating of 0.748 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. Real Betis have a tight defence (rating 0.712), which is pulling Las Palmas's projected output down. Data: built from Real Betis's last 51 games and Las Palmas's last 13.
Result probabilities: Real Betis 53% | Draw 30% | Las Palmas 16%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 1.88 | Draw 3.28 | Las Palmas 6.12. Real Betis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Betis at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Betis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Real Betis's last 10 home games and Las Palmas's last 7 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Real Betis 40% (last 10 home games) | Las Palmas 43% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, matchday 14 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 53% | Draw 30% | Las Palmas 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Real Betis 1.37 / Las Palmas 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 1.003 / def 0.712 | Las Palmas attack 0.748 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Las Palmas xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Real Betis vs Las Palmas FAQs
What time does Real Betis vs Las Palmas kick off?
Real Betis vs Las Palmas kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Las Palmas?
Real Betis 1 - 0 Las Palmas.
Where is Real Betis vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Las Palmas part of?
Real Betis vs Las Palmas is a La Liga fixture (matchday 14) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 53% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 16% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Real Betis and Las Palmas will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Real Betis vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Real Betis's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Las Palmas's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Las Palmas's attack versus Real Betis's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Real Betis's last 51 games and Las Palmas's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
53%
1.88
30%
3.28
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Real Betis xG
Total xG
2.02
0.65
Las Palmas xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
4%
24.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 11.8 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Real Betis vs Las Palmas Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Real Betis and 0.65 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Real Betis have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 5W 6D 2L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Las Palmas's form line: 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Real Betis on 1.62 PPG, Las Palmas on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Real Betis have posted 2.33 PPG from their last 6 home games (4W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Real Betis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Las Palmas have gone 2W 1D 3L from their last 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Betis are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.85 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Betis have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
Real Betis (Home) vs Las Palmas (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Real Betis
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
❓ Real Betis vs Las Palmas Form FAQs
What form are Real Betis and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 5W 6D 2L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Las Palmas away?
Real Betis's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 2.33 PPG; Las Palmas away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Real Betis or Las Palmas been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Las Palmas in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Real Betis's record when hosting Las Palmas specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Real Betis
2
Draws
0
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Real Betis vs Las Palmas H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Las Palmas?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Real Betis have won 2, Las Palmas have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Las Palmas last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2025: Real Betis 1-0 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Las Palmas?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Betis 33%, Las Palmas 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Real Betis and 33% for Las Palmas.
On the defensive side: Real Betis keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Las Palmas in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Real Betis vs Las Palmas Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Real Betis and Las Palmas matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Real Betis's recent matches and 50% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Real Betis and Las Palmas matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Real Betis's recent games and 33% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Betis and Las Palmas matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Real Betis's recent matches and 50% of Las Palmas's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Betis edge out Las Palmas 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Las Palmas 1-0 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.37 xG and Las Palmas 0.65 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.00 / defence 0.71 against Las Palmas attack 0.75 / defence 0.90, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 53% | Draw 30% | Las Palmas 16%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 38%, Las Palmas 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Las Palmas's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Real Betis 1.62 PPG, Las Palmas 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Betis win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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