Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas meet at Estadio de Vallecas in La Liga (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 November 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Rayo Vallecano (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rayo Vallecano at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Las Palmas have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Las Palmas have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Rayo Vallecano's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Las Palmas's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 20 Jan 2024, ended Rayo Vallecano 0–2 Las Palmas — a Las Palmas win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Rayo Vallecano half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Las Palmas half-time and goal-timing data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 41% versus Las Palmas 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rayo Vallecano 39% | Las Palmas 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.65 xG and Las Palmas 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.934 / defence 0.890 | Las Palmas attack 0.950 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.082. Las Palmas's defence rating of 1.252 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rayo Vallecano's projected output up. Data: built from Rayo Vallecano's last 49 games and Las Palmas's last 50.
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 53% | Draw 27% | Las Palmas 20%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 1.87 | Draw 3.70 | Las Palmas 5.12. Rayo Vallecano hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayo Vallecano at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rayo Vallecano 60% (last 10 home games) | Las Palmas 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, matchday 13 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Friday 8 November 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 53% | Draw 27% | Las Palmas 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.65 / Las Palmas 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.934 / def 0.890 | Las Palmas attack 0.950 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Las Palmas xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas FAQs
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 8 November 2024 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas?
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 3 Las Palmas.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas is a La Liga fixture (matchday 13) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 53% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rayo Vallecano's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Las Palmas's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Las Palmas's attack (0.95x) against Rayo Vallecano's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Rayo Vallecano's last 49 games and Las Palmas's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
53%
1.87
27%
3.70
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.57
0.92
Las Palmas xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
4%
26.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.92 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Rayo Vallecano have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 12W 18D 19L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Las Palmas's form line: 12W 12D 25L from 49 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Rayo Vallecano against 0.98 for Las Palmas. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rayo Vallecano have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 24 home games (6W 10D 8L).
On the road, Las Palmas have gone 5W 4D 15L from their last 24 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.92 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
Rayo Vallecano (Home) vs Las Palmas (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas Form FAQs
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 12W 18D 19L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 12W 12D 25L in their last 49 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Las Palmas away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.17 PPG; Las Palmas away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Rayo Vallecano or Las Palmas been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Las Palmas in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 9 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayo Vallecano have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Las Palmas — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Rayo Vallecano
0
Draws
2
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, Las Palmas have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2025: Las Palmas 0-1 Rayo Vallecano.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 58%, Las Palmas 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Rayo Vallecano) and 38% (Las Palmas).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano have failed to score in 29% of games; Las Palmas in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 42% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 38% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 71% of Las Palmas's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Las Palmas cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rayo Vallecano.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas beat Rayo Vallecano 1-3 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.65 xG and Las Palmas 0.92 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Las Palmas outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.93 / defence 0.89 against Las Palmas attack 0.95 / defence 1.25, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 53% | Draw 27% | Las Palmas 20%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Las Palmas win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 39%, Las Palmas 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Las Palmas's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.10 PPG, Las Palmas 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Las Palmas win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Las Palmas (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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