Osasuna 0-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Osasuna at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Osasuna face Valencia.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Valencia travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna in La Liga (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Monday 15 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Osasuna have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Osasuna have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Valencia stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Valencia away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 1.40 PPG, Valencia 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Osasuna, 3 for Valencia and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Osasuna 2–1 Valencia — a Osasuna win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Osasuna trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Valencia trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 44% versus Valencia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 38% | Valencia 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.29 xG and Valencia 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.984 / defence 1.211 | Valencia attack 0.869 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.077. Osasuna's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Valencia's projected output up. Data: built from Osasuna's last 68 games and Valencia's last 68.

Result probabilities: Osasuna 40% | Draw 28% | Valencia 32%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.51 | Draw 3.54 | Valencia 3.13. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 50% (last 10 home games) | Valencia 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights