Osasuna 2-1 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Osasuna at 37%, yet in-form Real Sociedad provide a compelling counter-argument — this Osasuna vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Osasuna welcome Real Sociedad to Estadio El Sadar in La Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 2 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Osasuna have gone 1W 6D 3L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Osasuna's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Osasuna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Real Sociedad stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Real Sociedad have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Real Sociedad are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Osasuna, 4 for Real Sociedad and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Scoring has been limited in the 7 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Osasuna 2–0 Real Sociedad — a Osasuna win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Osasuna trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Real Sociedad trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 54% versus Real Sociedad 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 44% | Real Sociedad 34%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.11 xG and Real Sociedad 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.057 / defence 1.144 | Real Sociedad attack 0.825 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.127. Real Sociedad bring a tight defence (rating 0.752, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Osasuna's projected output down. Data: built from Osasuna's last 59 games and Real Sociedad's last 59.

Result probabilities: Osasuna 37% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 34%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.73 | Draw 3.41 | Real Sociedad 2.93. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Real Sociedad (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Osasuna's last 10 home games and Real Sociedad's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 80% (last 10 home games) | Real Sociedad 0% (last 10 away games).

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