Osasuna 1-0 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Espanyol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Osasuna welcome Espanyol to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Thursday 20 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Osasuna — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osasuna have posted 5W 1D 4L at Estadio El Sadar — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Espanyol have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Espanyol have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Osasuna at 1.30 PPG versus Espanyol's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Osasuna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Espanyol in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Osasuna have won 0, Espanyol 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Espanyol in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 43% versus Espanyol 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 36% | Espanyol 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.43 xG and Espanyol 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.933 / defence 1.099 | Espanyol attack 1.065 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.176. Data: 47 Osasuna games / 47 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 39% | Draw 25% | Espanyol 36%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Espanyol 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 60% | Espanyol 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 39% | Draw 25% | Espanyol 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Osasuna 1.43 / Espanyol 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.933 / def 1.099 | Espanyol attack 1.065 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Espanyol xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Espanyol kick off?
Osasuna vs Espanyol kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 20 October 2022 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Osasuna 1 - 0 Espanyol.
Where is Osasuna vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Espanyol part of?
Osasuna vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 39% chance of winning, Espanyol a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Osasuna and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Espanyol?
Record (2 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 2 | Espanyol 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Espanyol in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Espanyol (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.93x the league average against Espanyol's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Espanyol's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
39%
2.59
25%
3.96
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.81
1.38
Espanyol xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
10%
10.25
9%
11.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.38 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna's recent record stands at 16W 12D 19L from 47 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Espanyol, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 20L across 47 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.28 PPG, Espanyol on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 8W 6D 9L from 23 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Espanyol's away record stands at 2W 8D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Espanyol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 1.11 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 47 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Espanyol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 16W 12D 19L in their last 47 games (1.28 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 12W 15D 20L in their last 47 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Espanyol away?
Osasuna's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.30 PPG; Espanyol away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Espanyol runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Espanyol have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Osasuna's record when hosting Espanyol specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Osasuna
4
Draws
2
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Espanyol?
From 8 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Espanyol have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Osasuna 1-2 Espanyol.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 52%, Espanyol 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Osasuna) and 61% (Espanyol).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 26% of games; Espanyol in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Espanyol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Osasuna's games and 61% of Espanyol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Espanyol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Osasuna's recent games and 61% of Espanyol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Espanyol tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Espanyol in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Espanyol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Espanyol 1-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.43 xG and Espanyol 1.38 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Espanyol landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Espanyol attack 1.06 / defence 1.12, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 39% | Draw 25% | Espanyol 36%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 36%, Espanyol 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Espanyol's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.28 PPG, Espanyol 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Espanyol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.