Osasuna vs Celta Vigo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Osasuna take on Celta Vigo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Celta Vigo at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Osasuna — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Celta Vigo have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 1.10 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Osasuna have won 5, Celta Vigo 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Celta Vigo in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 53% versus Celta Vigo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 49% | Celta Vigo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.73 xG and Celta Vigo 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.710 / defence 0.936 | Celta Vigo attack 0.676 / defence 0.642. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.254. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Celta Vigo's defence strength of 0.642 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Osasuna games / 46 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 29% | Draw 39% | Celta Vigo 32%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.45 | Draw 2.56 | Celta Vigo 3.12. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.53. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.53 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Osasuna's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 20% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 60% | Celta Vigo 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 29% | Draw 39% | Celta Vigo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 30% | xG Osasuna 0.73 / Celta Vigo 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.710 / def 0.936 | Celta Vigo attack 0.676 / def 0.642 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Celta Vigo xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Osasuna vs Celta Vigo is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Estadio El Sadar.
Where is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo part of?
Osasuna vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 29% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 32% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Osasuna and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
Record (10 meetings): Osasuna 5W | Draws 1 | Celta Vigo 4W.
What form are Osasuna and Celta Vigo in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Celta Vigo's defensive record (0.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.49
39%
2.54
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Osasuna xG
Total xG
1.53
0.79
Celta Vigo xG
3.49
29%
Home win
2.54
39%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.33
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.7 | 17.2 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.3%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.79 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 1.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna's recent record stands at 14W 11D 22L from 47 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 14L across 47 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.13 PPG, Celta Vigo on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 10W 7D 6L from 23 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 8W 11D 4L across 23 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.34 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 47 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 14W 11D 22L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 16W 17D 14L in their last 47 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Celta Vigo away?
Osasuna's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.61 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 27 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Osasuna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2024, when Celta Vigo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Celta Vigo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Osasuna
1
Draws
4
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 5, Celta Vigo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2026, when Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Celta Vigo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 65%, Celta Vigo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Osasuna) and 35% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Celta Vigo in 39%; Celta Vigo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Celta Vigo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Osasuna's games and 56% of Celta Vigo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Osasuna's recent games and 35% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.