Mallorca 2-1 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Visit Mallorca Estadi plays host to Mallorca versus Rayo Vallecano in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Mallorca have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Mallorca are significantly better at Visit Mallorca Estadi than their overall form suggests.
Rayo Vallecano's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Rayo Vallecano have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Mallorca, 1.10 for Rayo Vallecano — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mallorca lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Rayo Vallecano winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Rayo Vallecano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 47% versus Rayo Vallecano 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 47% | Rayo Vallecano 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 0.98 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.845 / defence 1.557 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.636 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.132. Data: 36 Mallorca games / 36 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 30% | Draw 32% | Rayo Vallecano 38%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Rayo Vallecano 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 40% | Rayo Vallecano 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 30% | Draw 32% | Rayo Vallecano 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Mallorca 0.98 / Rayo Vallecano 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.845 / def 1.557 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.636 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Rayo Vallecano xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Mallorca 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 30% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (1 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 0 | Rayo Vallecano 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mallorca's attack at 0.84x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayo Vallecano's attack (0.64x) against Mallorca's defence (1.56x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
30%
3.31
32%
3.10
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.10
1.12
Rayo Vallecano xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.7 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.12 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca's recent record stands at 8W 9D 19L from 36 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 16L across 36 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Mallorca against 1.17 for Rayo Vallecano. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 6W 6D 6L from 18 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rayo Vallecano's away record stands at 3W 4D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayo Vallecano's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.00 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 36 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Rayo Vallecano
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 8W 9D 19L in their last 36 games (0.92 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Mallorca's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.33 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mallorca won 3-0 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rayo Vallecano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Mallorca
2
Draws
2
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 6, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Mallorca 3-0 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 44%, Rayo Vallecano 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Mallorca) and 33% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 39% of games; Rayo Vallecano in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mallorca's recent matches and 39% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Mallorca's recent games and 33% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Rayo Vallecano 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Rayo Vallecano 2-1 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 0.98 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.12 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.84 / defence 1.56 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.64 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 30% | Draw 32% | Rayo Vallecano 38%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 47%, Rayo Vallecano 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 0.92 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.