Mallorca 0-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mallorca at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Osasuna travel to Visit Mallorca Estadi to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 March 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's home record at Visit Mallorca Estadi: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mallorca are significantly better at Visit Mallorca Estadi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Mallorca) versus 1.00 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Mallorca, 2 for Osasuna and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mallorca trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Osasuna trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 42% versus Osasuna 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 36% | Osasuna 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.09 xG and Osasuna 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.920 / defence 0.886 | Osasuna attack 0.869 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 0.993. Data: 64 Mallorca games / 64 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 43% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 25%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Osasuna 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Osasuna's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mallorca at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 30% | Osasuna 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Friday 31 Mar 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 43% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Mallorca 1.09 / Osasuna 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.920 / def 0.886 | Osasuna attack 0.869 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.353 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Osasuna xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Osasuna kick off?
Mallorca vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 31 March 2023 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Mallorca 0 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Mallorca vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Osasuna part of?
Mallorca vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 43% chance of winning, Osasuna a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Mallorca and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Osasuna?
Record (3 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 2W.
What form are Mallorca and Osasuna in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Osasuna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.92) and Osasuna's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
43%
2.33
32%
3.16
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.85
0.77
Osasuna xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
9%
11.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 12.0 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.77 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca's recent record stands at 19W 14D 31L from 64 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 25L across 64 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.11 PPG, Osasuna on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 13W 9D 10L from 32 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 10W 10D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 0.92 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 64 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 19W 14D 31L in their last 64 games (1.11 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 21W 18D 25L in their last 64 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Osasuna away?
Mallorca's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.50 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Osasuna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Osasuna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Mallorca's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
5
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Osasuna have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 44%, Osasuna 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Mallorca and 28% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 31% of games; Osasuna in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mallorca's recent matches and 41% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Mallorca's recent games and 28% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Osasuna tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mallorca's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca and Osasuna finished level at 0-0 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.09 xG and Osasuna 0.77 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mallorca fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against Osasuna attack 0.87 / defence 0.88, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 43% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 25%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 36%, Osasuna 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osasuna's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.11 PPG, Osasuna 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.